Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.122509 2.577904 3.091918 3.712690 4.439550 5.261056 6.257061
2025-04-20 1.545506 2.137344 2.880888 3.873486 5.152323 6.731867 8.816047
2025-04-27 1.176598 1.820113 2.705496 3.989433 5.775916 8.141809 11.473337
2025-05-04 0.953920 1.626999 2.628175 4.184452 6.491118 9.722350 14.512857
2025-05-11 0.746145 1.396375 2.436904 4.160941 6.866103 10.849089 17.026148
2025-05-18 0.568822 1.165832 2.191098 3.995835 6.982124 11.584823 19.020519
2025-05-25 0.431724 0.967619 1.953195 3.791091 6.987613 12.127251 20.746268
2025-06-01 0.352410 0.856362 1.841610 3.774318 7.283764 13.134217 23.259938
2025-06-08 0.294574 0.772962 1.763431 3.799498 7.644908 14.267995 26.059320
2025-06-15 0.244305 0.692125 1.673239 3.783983 7.923860 15.278698 28.726169
2025-06-22 0.189748 0.585159 1.506651 3.588705 7.839680 15.642529 30.311441
2025-06-29 0.158198 0.526218 1.431814 3.566904 8.079008 16.594145 32.981905
2025-07-06 0.130435 0.469901 1.353877 3.531110 8.296180 17.543370 35.762045
2025-07-13 0.119380 0.458547 1.382343 3.737029 9.032509 19.532565 40.594280
2025-07-20 0.106139 0.436320 1.378980 3.868656 9.626246 21.295884 45.133641
2025-07-27 0.097130 0.424979 1.401873 4.065729 10.381409 23.433420 50.526054
2025-08-03 0.081683 0.385846 1.340454 4.045367 10.651280 24.620407 54.168896
2025-08-10 0.064824 0.334364 1.231535 3.885166 10.581986 25.105343 56.465511
2025-08-17 0.050290 0.284970 1.115935 3.685698 10.393048 25.317963 58.223982
2025-08-24 0.042389 0.259885 1.070354 3.669440 10.640373 26.474611 61.970130
2025-08-31 0.036477 0.241067 1.040917 3.694048 10.990600 27.880112 66.318760
2025-09-07 0.030813 0.220508 1.000301 3.678923 11.237656 29.074074 70.296684
2025-09-14 0.023739 0.188052 0.907490 3.488406 11.005681 29.166234 71.929402